Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
