Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”