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Just two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of votes that came in later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year backed Zohran now. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He has 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he does so then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there existed a little resistance. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.